Denmark with an aggressive vaccination strategy

According to the current plan, the total adult Danish population will be vaccinated twice by the end of second quarter 2021

Since March 2020, the demand for air travel has been heavily impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic. Due to huge restrictions on travelling, and uncertainty among travelers, the number of passengers has dropped to an unprecedented low level, all over the world. For both the restrictions to be lifted, and for the uncertainty to decrease, the number of cases and resulting hospitalizations must decrease significantly. It is assessed by most experts that a broad vaccination of the world’s population, is the fastest and most effective way to achieve that.

Denmark is in the top of world regarding vaccination

The Danish government has a very ambitious plan for the vaccination of the Danish population. Currently Denmark is in 12th place of countries worldwide with regards to the share of population, already vaccinated:

Source: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

According to the Danish health authorities, the current expectation is that the whole of the adult Danish population will be vaccinated with two doses by the end of June. Based on surveys, it is expected that 90% of the adult Danish population will accept receiving the first dose, and 95% of these will receive also the second. Whether the plan holds, will of course depend on sufficient supplies of the vaccines, but the hope is that the plan will only be marginally adjusted.

Therefore, there is a very good chance that in the summer of 2021, Copenhagen Airport will have significantly more passengers than we see currently. This includes Danes travelling on holiday abroad, as both the number of cases in Denmark and in other parts of Europe, must be expected to be much lower than currently. The travel restrictions will probably still exist to some extent, but will be more flexible. Also, foreign visitors to Denmark can be expected to be higher in the summer, as both their share of vaccinated population is expected to be higher, and because Denmark as a destination will be very safe due to the high share of vaccinated residents. 

Covid-19 pass is expected to be in place from the summer

If there should be a positive effect of the vaccination program, travelers will likely need to be able to show a vaccination certification. On February 3^rd of this year, the Danish government announced that they will, in cooperation with the Danish business associations, start to develop a Covid-19 pass. From end of February, it will be possible for Danes to download a certificate from a public web site that shows vaccination or test results. In 3-4 months is it expected that a digital pass is available. It will be very important that an international solution is found in the meantime, so it is easy to show an accepted documentation for vaccination in many different countries. Such an international solution will have a huge impact on the experience of the travel and tourism sectors in many parts of the world. So, it must be expected that there will be a very big desire from many sides to achieve such an international solution.